Selective sweeps in SARS-CoV-2 variant competition.
Publication
, Journal Article
Boyle, L; Hletko, S; Huang, J; Lee, J; Pallod, G; Tung, H-R; Durrett, R
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
November 2022
The main mathematical result in this paper is that change of variables in the ordinary differential equation (ODE) for the competition of two infections in a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model shows that the fraction of cases due to the new variant satisfies the logistic differential equation, which models selective sweeps. Fitting the logistic to data from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) shows that this correctly predicts the rapid turnover from one dominant variant to another. In addition, our fitting gives sensible estimates of the increase in infectivity. These arguments are applicable to any epidemic modeled by SIR equations.
Duke Scholars
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
DOI
EISSN
1091-6490
ISSN
0027-8424
Publication Date
November 2022
Volume
119
Issue
47
Start / End Page
e2213879119
Related Subject Headings
- SARS-CoV-2
- Influenza, Human
- Humans
- Epidemics
- Disease Susceptibility
- COVID-19
Citation
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MLA
NLM
Boyle, L., Hletko, S., Huang, J., Lee, J., Pallod, G., Tung, H.-R., & Durrett, R. (2022). Selective sweeps in SARS-CoV-2 variant competition. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(47), e2213879119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2213879119
Boyle, Laura, Sofia Hletko, Jenny Huang, June Lee, Gaurav Pallod, Hwai-Ray Tung, and Richard Durrett. “Selective sweeps in SARS-CoV-2 variant competition.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 119, no. 47 (November 2022): e2213879119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2213879119.
Boyle L, Hletko S, Huang J, Lee J, Pallod G, Tung H-R, et al. Selective sweeps in SARS-CoV-2 variant competition. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2022 Nov;119(47):e2213879119.
Boyle, Laura, et al. “Selective sweeps in SARS-CoV-2 variant competition.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 119, no. 47, Nov. 2022, p. e2213879119. Epmc, doi:10.1073/pnas.2213879119.
Boyle L, Hletko S, Huang J, Lee J, Pallod G, Tung H-R, Durrett R. Selective sweeps in SARS-CoV-2 variant competition. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2022 Nov;119(47):e2213879119.
Published In
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
DOI
EISSN
1091-6490
ISSN
0027-8424
Publication Date
November 2022
Volume
119
Issue
47
Start / End Page
e2213879119
Related Subject Headings
- SARS-CoV-2
- Influenza, Human
- Humans
- Epidemics
- Disease Susceptibility
- COVID-19