Methods for national population forecasts: a review.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

"Three widely used classes of methods for forecasting national populations are reviewed: demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections, statistical time series methods for short-range forecasts, and structural modeling methods for the simulation and forecasting of the effects of policy changes. In each case, the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods are described. Factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population forecasts are articulated. Promising lines of additional research by statisticians and demographers are identified for each class of methods and for population forecasting generally."

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Land, KC

Published Date

  • December 1986

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 81 / 396

Start / End Page

  • 888 - 901

PubMed ID

  • 12155424

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1537-274X

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0162-1459

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1080/01621459.1986.10478347


  • eng