The impact of urbanization and delayed childbearing on population growth and aging in China

Urbanization and delayed childbearing in China are likely to reduce future national birth rates and significantly slow population growth for two reasons. First, urban residents are apt to continue to have substantially lower fertility rates than rural residents. In addition, urbanites tend to give birth at older ages and may be more receptive to government efforts to further delay childbearing. Rapid urbanization accompanied by a gradual increase in the mean age of childbearing may avert about 300 million births over the period 1987 to 2050. This reduction in number of births may increase the proportion of the population that is elderly. In particular, the projections suggest that more than a quarter of the remaining rural population in 2050 may be aged 65 or older. -from Authors

Duke Scholars

Author Yi Zeng Medicine, Geriatrics