The distribution of realized exchange rate volatility
Journal Article (Journal Article)
Using high-frequency data on deutschemark and yen returns against the dollar, we construct model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility and correlation that cover an entire decade. Our estimates, termed realized volatilities and correlations, are not only model-free, but also approximately free of measurement error under general conditions, which we discuss in detail. Hence, for practical purposes, we may treat the exchange rate volatilities and correlations as observed rather than latent. We do so, and we characterize their joint distribution, both unconditionally and conditionally. Noteworthy results include a simple normality-inducing volatility transformation, high contemporaneous correlation across volatilities, high correlation between correlation and volatilities, pronounced and persistent dynamics in volatilities and correlations, evidence of long-memory dynamics in volatilities and correlations, and remarkably precise scaling laws under temporal aggregation. © 2001 American Statistical Association.
Full Text
Duke Authors
Cited Authors
- Andersen, TG; Bollerslev, T; Diebold, FX; Labys, P
Published Date
- March 1, 2001
Published In
Volume / Issue
- 96 / 453
Start / End Page
- 42 - 55
Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)
- 1537-274X
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)
- 0162-1459
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
- 10.1198/016214501750332965
Citation Source
- Scopus