Demand for bank loans and credit bureau services in the Republic of
In order to judge the potential viability of a Credit
Bureau in the Republic of Kazakhstan, this study estimates
the number of credit applications during 2000-2001, and
projects changes through 2004. We assume that credit
applications provide a good indicator of demand for Credit
Bureau services, since the banking sector currently
extends more than 90% of all credit within the ROK .
Beyond bank operations, Kazakhstan is fundamentally a cash
economy, so that there is little reason to assess levels
of non-bank demand for credit reporting.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK), which supervises
and regulates the banking sector, provided the primary
source of information for this study. Its Credit Registry
archives all data related to banking loans by borrower
type and main characteristics, including size, interest
rate, and duration. We believe the information contained
therein is complete and fundamentally unbiased.
Unfortunately, the Credit Registry’s database does not
track loans below one million tenge (about USD 6,500) for
individuals and three million tenge for businesses. We
correct for this information base gap in the analysis that
We estimate that in 2004 the number of applications will
be between 314,000 and 690,000. These numbers reflect a
base year (2000) number of loan applications of between
171,000 to 225,000. Barring any unexpected volatility
arising from exogenous factors, the number of applications
is expected to increase on average between 16.4% and 32.4%
over the period 2001-2004. These estimates do not take
into account expected growth of retail business across all
economic sectors and the anticipated high level of
conversion of debit cards into credit cards. Besides
banks, the largest users of credit bureau services around
the world are entities that extend credit to customers at
the consumer level; growth at present in Kazakhstan is
very high, but from a very small base.
The remainder of this section discusses both principal
empirical findings and briefly discusses the social
importance of Credit Bureaus in a broad economic context.
Section 2 then discusses patterns of bank loans; Section 3
estimates the number of borrowers in Kazakhstan, Section 4
provides further detail on the nature of banking sector
loans, and Section 5 offers aggregate forecasts.
Becker, CM; Seitenova, AS; Piedra, J
,” Central Asian Journal of Management, Economics and Social Research
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