Demand for bank loans and credit bureau services in the Republic of

Published

Journal Article (Academic article)

In order to judge the potential viability of a Credit Bureau in the Republic of Kazakhstan, this study estimates the number of credit applications during 2000-2001, and projects changes through 2004. We assume that credit applications provide a good indicator of demand for Credit Bureau services, since the banking sector currently extends more than 90% of all credit within the ROK . Beyond bank operations, Kazakhstan is fundamentally a cash economy, so that there is little reason to assess levels of non-bank demand for credit reporting. The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK), which supervises and regulates the banking sector, provided the primary source of information for this study. Its Credit Registry archives all data related to banking loans by borrower type and main characteristics, including size, interest rate, and duration. We believe the information contained therein is complete and fundamentally unbiased. Unfortunately, the Credit Registry’s database does not track loans below one million tenge (about USD 6,500) for individuals and three million tenge for businesses. We correct for this information base gap in the analysis that follows below. We estimate that in 2004 the number of applications will be between 314,000 and 690,000. These numbers reflect a base year (2000) number of loan applications of between 171,000 to 225,000. Barring any unexpected volatility arising from exogenous factors, the number of applications is expected to increase on average between 16.4% and 32.4% over the period 2001-2004. These estimates do not take into account expected growth of retail business across all economic sectors and the anticipated high level of conversion of debit cards into credit cards. Besides banks, the largest users of credit bureau services around the world are entities that extend credit to customers at the consumer level; growth at present in Kazakhstan is very high, but from a very small base. The remainder of this section discusses both principal empirical findings and briefly discusses the social importance of Credit Bureaus in a broad economic context. Section 2 then discusses patterns of bank loans; Section 3 estimates the number of borrowers in Kazakhstan, Section 4 provides further detail on the nature of banking sector loans, and Section 5 offers aggregate forecasts.

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Becker, CM; Seitenova, AS; Piedra, J

Published Date

  • 2002

Published In

  • ,” Central Asian Journal of Management, Economics and Social Research

Volume / Issue

  • 3 / 1

Start / End Page

  • 1 - 19