Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: the role of the components of demographic change.

Published

Journal Article

The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus "nonsignificant" correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined with contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor-force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.

Full Text

Cited Authors

  • Kelley, AC; Schmidt, RM

Published Date

  • November 1995

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 32 / 4

Start / End Page

  • 543 - 555

PubMed ID

  • 8925946

Pubmed Central ID

  • 8925946

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1533-7790

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0070-3370

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.2307/2061674

Language

  • eng