Dramatic demographic changes accompanied the decay and collapse of the Soviet Union. This paper considers their long-run economic effects, particularly with respect to impacts on government budgetary positions due to social transfers. Using a detailed actuarial forecasting model for the Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan, the paper demonstrates that the effect of the transition will be felt far into the 21st century, as government budget pressures to meet social expenditure needs result in lower savings rates and higher public debt. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.