Analytical evaluation of volatility forecasts

Journal Article (Review;Journal)

Estimation and forecasting for realistic continuous-time stochastic volatility models is hampered by the lack of closed-form expressions for the likelihood. In response, Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold, and Labys (Econometrica, 71 (2003), 579-625) advocate forecasting integrated volatility via reduced-form models for the realized volatility, constructed by summing high-frequency squared returns. Building on the eigenfunction stochastic volatility models, we present analytical expressions for the forecast efficiency associated with this reduced-form approach as a function of sampling frequency. For popular models like GARCH, multi-factor affine, and lognormal diffusions, the reduced form procedures perform remarkably well relative to the optimal (infeasible) forecasts.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Andersen, TG; Bollerslev, T; Meddahi, N

Published Date

  • November 1, 2004

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 45 / 4

Start / End Page

  • 1079 - 1110

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0020-6598

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1111/j.0020-6598.2004.00298.x

Citation Source

  • Scopus