Analytical evaluation of volatility forecasts
Journal Article (Review;Journal)
Estimation and forecasting for realistic continuous-time stochastic volatility models is hampered by the lack of closed-form expressions for the likelihood. In response, Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold, and Labys (Econometrica, 71 (2003), 579-625) advocate forecasting integrated volatility via reduced-form models for the realized volatility, constructed by summing high-frequency squared returns. Building on the eigenfunction stochastic volatility models, we present analytical expressions for the forecast efficiency associated with this reduced-form approach as a function of sampling frequency. For popular models like GARCH, multi-factor affine, and lognormal diffusions, the reduced form procedures perform remarkably well relative to the optimal (infeasible) forecasts.
Full Text
Duke Authors
Cited Authors
- Andersen, TG; Bollerslev, T; Meddahi, N
Published Date
- November 1, 2004
Published In
Volume / Issue
- 45 / 4
Start / End Page
- 1079 - 1110
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)
- 0020-6598
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
- 10.1111/j.0020-6598.2004.00298.x
Citation Source
- Scopus