Different households have followed very different economic trajectories, this study of 35 north Indian villages shows. Members of 11.1% of 6,376 households in these villages have overcome poverty in the last 25 years, while members of another 7.9% have fallen into poverty. Households' escape from poverty is assisted by one set of factors, but an entirely different set of factors is associated with households' decline. Two distinct sets of policies are required thus, one set to promote escape from poverty and another set to arrest decline into poverty. Poverty has some distinctly local antecedents. A methodology for tracking changes in poverty at the local level is developed that community groups and others can use to assess change and examine causes. © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.