Bayesian inference for prevalence in longitudinal two-phase studies.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

We consider Bayesian inference and model selection for prevalence estimation using a longitudinal two-phase design in which subjects initially receive a low-cost screening test followed by an expensive diagnostic test conducted on several occasions. The change in the subject's diagnostic probability over time is described using four mixed-effects probit models in which the subject-specific effects are captured by latent variables. The computations are performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. These models are then compared using the deviance information criterion. The methodology is illustrated with an analysis of alcohol and drug use in adolescents using data from the Great Smoky Mountains Study.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Erkanli, A; Soyer, R; Costello, EJ

Published Date

  • December 1999

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 55 / 4

Start / End Page

  • 1145 - 1150

PubMed ID

  • 11315060

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0006-341X

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1111/j.0006-341x.1999.01145.x


  • eng

Conference Location

  • United States