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A model for pretest probability of lymph node metastasis from cutaneous Melanoma.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Vollmer, RT; Seigler, HF
Published in: Am J Clin Pathol
December 2000

Although many statistical models have been developed to predict survival in cutaneous melanoma, few predict the end point of regional lymph node metastasis shortly after the diagnosis of melanoma. We used routine clinical and histologic data from 573 patients referred to the Duke University Melanoma Clinic, Durham, NC, during the 1980s and 1990s who underwent lymph node resections during the first year after the diagnosis of primary cutaneous melanoma. The outcome we modeled (using the logistic regression model) was the probability of lymph node metastasis. We found that tumor thickness was the variable most significantly associated with the probability of nodal metastasis, and the presence of ulceration and tumor location also were significant, but age, sex, and mitotic rate were not. When the resulting logistic model predicted that the probability of nodal metastasis was more than .6, 93 of 115 patients had nodal metastasis. When the model predicted that the probability was less than .3, just 32 of 88 patients had positive nodes. Furthermore, after the result of the node sampling was known, Cox model analysis demonstrated that the pretest probability added significant information about subsequent survival.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Am J Clin Pathol

DOI

ISSN

0002-9173

Publication Date

December 2000

Volume

114

Issue

6

Start / End Page

875 / 879

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Survival Analysis
  • Skin Neoplasms
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Pathology
  • Mitotic Index
  • Melanoma
  • Male
  • Lymphatic Metastasis
  • Lymph Nodes
  • Logistic Models
 

Citation

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MLA
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Vollmer, R. T., & Seigler, H. F. (2000). A model for pretest probability of lymph node metastasis from cutaneous Melanoma. Am J Clin Pathol, 114(6), 875–879. https://doi.org/10.1309/V1XY-TKBU-HP6P-BBVL
Vollmer, R. T., and H. F. Seigler. “A model for pretest probability of lymph node metastasis from cutaneous Melanoma.Am J Clin Pathol 114, no. 6 (December 2000): 875–79. https://doi.org/10.1309/V1XY-TKBU-HP6P-BBVL.
Vollmer RT, Seigler HF. A model for pretest probability of lymph node metastasis from cutaneous Melanoma. Am J Clin Pathol. 2000 Dec;114(6):875–9.
Vollmer, R. T., and H. F. Seigler. “A model for pretest probability of lymph node metastasis from cutaneous Melanoma.Am J Clin Pathol, vol. 114, no. 6, Dec. 2000, pp. 875–79. Pubmed, doi:10.1309/V1XY-TKBU-HP6P-BBVL.
Vollmer RT, Seigler HF. A model for pretest probability of lymph node metastasis from cutaneous Melanoma. Am J Clin Pathol. 2000 Dec;114(6):875–879.
Journal cover image

Published In

Am J Clin Pathol

DOI

ISSN

0002-9173

Publication Date

December 2000

Volume

114

Issue

6

Start / End Page

875 / 879

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Survival Analysis
  • Skin Neoplasms
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Pathology
  • Mitotic Index
  • Melanoma
  • Male
  • Lymphatic Metastasis
  • Lymph Nodes
  • Logistic Models