A risk score to predict in-hospital mortality for percutaneous coronary interventions.


Journal Article

OBJECTIVES: Our purpose was to develop a risk score to predict in-hospital mortality for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using a statewide population-based PCI registry. BACKGROUND: Risk scores predicting adverse outcomes after PCI have been developed from a single or a small group of hospitals, and their abilities to be generalized to other patient populations might be affected. METHODS: A logistic regression model was developed to predict in-hospital mortality for PCI using data from 46,090 procedures performed in 41 hospitals in the New York State Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Reporting System in 2002. A risk score was derived from this model and was validated using 2003 data from New York. RESULTS: The risk score included nine significant risk factors (age, gender, hemodynamic state, ejection fraction, pre-procedural myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart disease, renal failure, and left main disease) that were consistent with other reports. The point values for risk factors range from 1 to 9, and the total risk score ranges from 0 to 40. The observed and recalibrated predicted risks in 2003 were highly correlated for all PCI patients as well as for those in the higher-risk subgroup who suffered myocardial infarctions within 24 h before the procedure. The total risk score for mortality is strongly associated with complication rates and length of stay in the 2003 PCI data. CONCLUSIONS: The risk score accurately predicted in-hospital death for PCI procedures using future New York data. Its performance in other patient populations needs to be further studied.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Wu, C; Hannan, EL; Walford, G; Ambrose, JA; Holmes, DR; King, SB; Clark, LT; Katz, S; Sharma, S; Jones, RH

Published Date

  • February 7, 2006

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 47 / 3

Start / End Page

  • 654 - 660

PubMed ID

  • 16458151

Pubmed Central ID

  • 16458151

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1558-3597

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/j.jacc.2005.09.071


  • eng

Conference Location

  • United States