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Statistical analyses of freeway traffic flows

Publication ,  Journal Article
Tebaldi, C; West, M; Karr, AF
Published in: Journal of Forecasting
January 1, 2002

This paper concerns the exploration of statistical models for the analysis of observational freeway flow data, and the development of empirical models to capture and predict short-term changes in traffic flow characteristics on sequences of links in a partially detectorized freeway network. A first set of analyses explores regression models for minute-by-minute traffic flows, taking into account time of day, day of the week, and recent upstream detector-based flows. Day-and link-specific random effects are used in a hierarchical statistical modelling framework. A second set of analyses captures day-specific idiosyncrasies in traffic patterns by including parameters that may vary throughout the day. Model fit and short-term predictions of flows are thus improved significantly. A third set of analyses includes recent downstream flows as additional predictors. These further improvements, though marginal in most cases, can be quite radically useful in cases of very marked breakdown of freeway flows on some links. These three modelling stages are described and developed in analyses of observational flow data from a set of links on Interstate Highway 5 (I-5) near Seattle. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Journal of Forecasting

DOI

ISSN

0277-6693

Publication Date

January 1, 2002

Volume

21

Issue

1

Start / End Page

39 / 68

Related Subject Headings

  • Econometrics
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 3802 Econometrics
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 0104 Statistics
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Tebaldi, C., West, M., & Karr, A. F. (2002). Statistical analyses of freeway traffic flows. Journal of Forecasting, 21(1), 39–68. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.804
Tebaldi, C., M. West, and A. F. Karr. “Statistical analyses of freeway traffic flows.” Journal of Forecasting 21, no. 1 (January 1, 2002): 39–68. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.804.
Tebaldi C, West M, Karr AF. Statistical analyses of freeway traffic flows. Journal of Forecasting. 2002 Jan 1;21(1):39–68.
Tebaldi, C., et al. “Statistical analyses of freeway traffic flows.” Journal of Forecasting, vol. 21, no. 1, Jan. 2002, pp. 39–68. Scopus, doi:10.1002/for.804.
Tebaldi C, West M, Karr AF. Statistical analyses of freeway traffic flows. Journal of Forecasting. 2002 Jan 1;21(1):39–68.
Journal cover image

Published In

Journal of Forecasting

DOI

ISSN

0277-6693

Publication Date

January 1, 2002

Volume

21

Issue

1

Start / End Page

39 / 68

Related Subject Headings

  • Econometrics
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 3802 Econometrics
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 0104 Statistics