Monte Carlo analysis and bayesian decision theory for assessing the effects of waste sites on groundwater, I: Theory

A sequential Bayesian risk methodology is outlined for addressing the problem of permitting waste sites under conditions of imperfect information. Topics covered include use of preposterior analysis to evaluate candidate sampling plans and prior/posterior analysis of risk. The algorithm is sufficiently general that it can be adapted to accommodate any specific groundwater contaminant transport model or site configuration. In the following paper an example is provided to show the details of application to a numerical groundwater transport model. The methodology described here is being incorporated into an advisory computer system for North Carolina groundwater quality modeling and management needs.

Duke Scholars

Author Miguel A. Medina Civil and Environmental Engineering