Prognotic significance of pretreatment proliferative activity in adult acute leukemia.

A statistical analysis of the prognostic significance of eight pretreatment variables was undertaken for 71 previously untreated adult patients with acute leukemia seen at M.D. Anderson Hospital over a 5 1/2-year period. None of the patients had received any prior therapy. Nearly all of the patients (68 of the 71) were treated with 4- or 5-day courses of arabinosyl-cytosine alone or in combination with cyclophosphamide, vincristine (oncovin) and prednisone (COAP). The pretreatment variables studied were age at diagnosis, the percent labeling index of the bone marrow leukemic cells, diagnosis, the highest temperature prior to start of treatment, the marrow clot section cellularity and smear differential percent of blasts, percent absolute marrow leukemic cell infiltrate and absolute number of blasts X 10(3)/mm3 in the peripheral blood. Fifty-one patients had acute myeloblastic leukemia (AML) and 20 patients had acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Using a statistical regression model approach, the only variables found to be of significant prognostic importance with respect to the probability of complete remission for AML patients were the pretreatment percent labeling index, the age of the patient and the highest temperature prior to start of treatment. Unlike AML, the initial percent labeling index did not appear to be of prognostic significance for ALL patients. AML patients with high labeling indices (larger than or equal to 9%) and young patients in general (especially those less than 40 years old) had the best remission rates. With respect to the length of complete remission and survival for all patients, the only important variables were the pretreatment percent labeling index and the age of the patient, respectively. Once in complete remission, an initially high labeling index was an unfavorable sign with respect to length of remission, regardless of the patient's diagnosis. The results of this study are supportive of studies in experimental systems demonstrating the importance of cytokinetic factors in the administration of chemotherapy and suggest that such factors may be of clinical importance in selecting approaches to therapy.

Duke Scholars

Author Stephen L. George Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Division of Biostatistics