Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution

Published

Journal Article

A feature shared by certain major revolutions is that they were not anticipated. Here is an explanation, which hinges on the observation that people who come to dislike their government are apt to hide their desire for change as long as the opposition seems weak. Because of this preference falsification, a government that appears unshakeable might see its support crumble following a slight surge in the opposition's apparent size, caused by events insignificant in and of themselves. Unlikely though the revolution may have appeared in foresight, it will in hindsight appear inevitable because its occurrence exposes a panoply of previously hidden conflicts. © 1989 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Kuran, T

Published Date

  • April 1, 1989

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 61 / 1

Start / End Page

  • 41 - 74

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1573-7101

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0048-5829

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1007/BF00116762

Citation Source

  • Scopus