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Iraq the vote: Retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance

Publication ,  Journal Article
Gelpi, C; Reifler, J; Feaver, P
Published in: Political Behavior
June 1, 2007

In this article, we model the effect of foreign policy attitudes on both vote choice and casualty tolerance, using survey data collected during the 2004 election. We show that prospective judgments of the likelihood of success in Iraq and retrospective judgments of whether the war in Iraq was right are significant determinants of both vote choice and casualty tolerance. The prospective judgment of success is key in predicting casualty tolerance, while retrospective judgment of whether the war was right takes precedence in determining vote choice. In addition, there is an important interaction between the two variables, so the effect of one is conditional on the value of the other. We believe this is compelling evidence that foreign policy matters, and that it matters in reasonable ways. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Political Behavior

DOI

ISSN

0190-9320

Publication Date

June 1, 2007

Volume

29

Issue

2

Start / End Page

151 / 174

Related Subject Headings

  • Political Science & Public Administration
  • 4408 Political science
  • 1606 Political Science
 

Citation

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ICMJE
MLA
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Gelpi, C., Reifler, J., & Feaver, P. (2007). Iraq the vote: Retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance. Political Behavior, 29(2), 151–174. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-007-9029-6
Gelpi, C., J. Reifler, and P. Feaver. “Iraq the vote: Retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance.” Political Behavior 29, no. 2 (June 1, 2007): 151–74. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-007-9029-6.
Gelpi C, Reifler J, Feaver P. Iraq the vote: Retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance. Political Behavior. 2007 Jun 1;29(2):151–74.
Gelpi, C., et al. “Iraq the vote: Retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance.” Political Behavior, vol. 29, no. 2, June 2007, pp. 151–74. Scopus, doi:10.1007/s11109-007-9029-6.
Gelpi C, Reifler J, Feaver P. Iraq the vote: Retrospective and prospective foreign policy judgments on candidate choice and casualty tolerance. Political Behavior. 2007 Jun 1;29(2):151–174.
Journal cover image

Published In

Political Behavior

DOI

ISSN

0190-9320

Publication Date

June 1, 2007

Volume

29

Issue

2

Start / End Page

151 / 174

Related Subject Headings

  • Political Science & Public Administration
  • 4408 Political science
  • 1606 Political Science