Confirmation of water quality models


Journal Article

Water quality simulation models, whether descriptive or predictive, must undergo confirmatory analyses if inferences drawn from the models are to be meaningful. Current practices in the confirmation of simulation models are examined and criticized from this perspective. In particular, labeling this process "verification" or "validation" (truth) probably contributes to the often inadequate efforts, since these states are unattainable. The evaluation of scientific hypotheses, or water quality simulation models, may proceed according to inductive logic, the hypothetico-deductive approach, or perhaps according to a falsification criterion. The result of successful testing is at best confirmation or corroboration, which is not truth but rather measured consistency with empirical evidence. On this basis a number of statistical tests are suggested for model confirmation. The major difficulty to overcome, before confirmation becomes meaningful, is the generally inadequate data for establishing rigorous statistical tests. © 1983.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Reckhow, KH; Chapra, SC

Published Date

  • January 1, 1983

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 20 / 2-3

Start / End Page

  • 113 - 133

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0304-3800

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/0304-3800(83)90002-9

Citation Source

  • Scopus