Reliable data on 5- and 10-year survival provide accurate estimates of 15-year survival in estrogen receptor-positive early-stage breast cancer.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

There are few studies of model-based survival projections using early empirical results for estimating long-term survival. Utilizing Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group (EBCTCG) data, a Markov model was generated to compare empirical results with those modeled beyond the empirical result time horizon in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive early-stage breast cancer (ESBC). Modeling 15-year survival based on 5- and 10-year EBCTCG data resulted in an average error estimate in breast cancer mortality of 0.75% [range -0.83 to 2.19%]. Although modeling life expectancy differences ranged from an underestimate of -7.93% to an overestimate of 12.64%, over the span of 15 years this corresponded to a loss of 18 days or a gain of 40 days of life. Reliable early survival data may be used to generate models that accurately estimate 15-year survival in ER-positive ESBC. Whether early survival data can be employed over the lifetime horizon remains to be demonstrated.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Herold, CI; Djulbegovic, B; Hozo, I; Lyman, GH

Published Date

  • June 2010

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 121 / 3

Start / End Page

  • 771 - 776

PubMed ID

  • 19806449

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1573-7217

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1007/s10549-009-0564-1


  • eng

Conference Location

  • Netherlands