Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments.

Published

Journal Article

Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO(2) enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Nathan, R; Horvitz, N; He, Y; Kuparinen, A; Schurr, FM; Katul, GG

Published Date

  • March 2011

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 14 / 3

Start / End Page

  • 211 - 219

PubMed ID

  • 21251175

Pubmed Central ID

  • 21251175

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1461-0248

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1461-023X

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.x

Language

  • eng