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Elephant survival, rainfall and the confounding effects of water provision and fences

Publication ,  Journal Article
Shrader, AM; Pimm, SL; van Aarde, RJ
Published in: Biodiversity and conservation.
July 2010

Elephant are increasing across some areas of Africa leading to concerns that they may reduce woodlands through their feeding. Droughts may help limit elephant numbers, but they are generally both episodic and local. To explore more general impacts of rainfall, we examine how its annual variation influences elephant survival across ten sites. These sites span an almost coast-to-coast transect of southern Africa that holds the majority of the ~500,000 remaining savanna elephants. Elephants born in high rainfall years survive better than elephants born in low rainfall years. The relationship is generally weak, except at the two fenced sites, where rainfall greatly influenced juvenile survival. In these two sites, there are also extensive networks of artificial water. Rainfall likely affects elephant survival through its influence on food. The provision of artificial water opens new areas for elephants in the dry season, while fencing restricts their movements in the wet season. We conclude that the combination of these factors makes elephant survival more susceptible to reductions in rainfall. As a result, elephants living in enclosed reserves may be the first populations to feel the impacts of global warming which will decrease average rainfall and increase the frequency of droughts. A way to prevent these elephants from damaging the vegetation within these enclosed parks is for managers to reduce artificial water sources or, whenever practical, to remove fences.

Duke Scholars

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Published In

Biodiversity and conservation.

DOI

EISSN

1572-9710

ISSN

0960-3115

Publication Date

July 2010

Volume

19

Issue

8

Start / End Page

2235 / 2245

Related Subject Headings

  • Ecology
  • 4104 Environmental management
  • 4102 Ecological applications
  • 3103 Ecology
  • 0602 Ecology
  • 0502 Environmental Science and Management
  • 0501 Ecological Applications
 

Citation

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Shrader, A. M., Pimm, S. L., & van Aarde, R. J. (2010). Elephant survival, rainfall and the confounding effects of water provision and fences. Biodiversity and Conservation., 19(8), 2235–2245. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-010-9836-7
Shrader, Adrian M., Stuart L. Pimm, and Rudi J. van Aarde. “Elephant survival, rainfall and the confounding effects of water provision and fences.” Biodiversity and Conservation. 19, no. 8 (July 2010): 2235–45. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-010-9836-7.
Shrader AM, Pimm SL, van Aarde RJ. Elephant survival, rainfall and the confounding effects of water provision and fences. Biodiversity and conservation. 2010 Jul;19(8):2235–45.
Shrader, Adrian M., et al. “Elephant survival, rainfall and the confounding effects of water provision and fences.” Biodiversity and Conservation., vol. 19, no. 8, July 2010, pp. 2235–45. Epmc, doi:10.1007/s10531-010-9836-7.
Shrader AM, Pimm SL, van Aarde RJ. Elephant survival, rainfall and the confounding effects of water provision and fences. Biodiversity and conservation. 2010 Jul;19(8):2235–2245.
Journal cover image

Published In

Biodiversity and conservation.

DOI

EISSN

1572-9710

ISSN

0960-3115

Publication Date

July 2010

Volume

19

Issue

8

Start / End Page

2235 / 2245

Related Subject Headings

  • Ecology
  • 4104 Environmental management
  • 4102 Ecological applications
  • 3103 Ecology
  • 0602 Ecology
  • 0502 Environmental Science and Management
  • 0501 Ecological Applications