Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

China has joined the group of low-fertility countries; it has a TFR somewhere in the range of 1.4 to 1.6. Much speculation about China's future fertility depends on whether individual's fertility intentions and preferences are much higher than the state's fertility goals. If so, then a relaxation of family planning restrictions could lead to a substantial fertility increase. We directly ask a probability sample of Shanghai registered residents and migrants whether a policy relaxation would lead them to have additional children. Our results show that small families (one or two children) are intended in this urban setting. If family planning policy were relaxed, a relatively small fraction (fewer than 14%) reports that they would revise their intentions upward. Even this modest increase (as much as 10%) is suspect because factors that can deflate fertility relative to intentions are likely more powerful than the inflationary ones (in Shanghai). These empirical findings help ground speculations on the future of fertility in the hypothetical absence of policy constraints.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Merli, MG; Morgan, SP

Published Date

  • January 2011

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 66 / 3-4

Start / End Page

  • 519 - 542

PubMed ID

  • 24039621

Pubmed Central ID

  • PMC3769784

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1958-9190

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1634-2941

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.3917/pope.1103.0519


  • eng