Statistical modeling using preoperative prognostic variables in predicting extracapsular extension and progression after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

OBJECTIVE: To predict the risk of extracapsular extension and postoperative recurrence before radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer. METHODS: We performed multivariate Cox regression analysis on preoperative variables in 260 clinically localized prostate cancer patients who underwent RP. With these data, we constructed a relative risk of recurrence (Rr) equation and an equation to predict the probability of extracapsular extension (PECE) before RP. RESULTS: Rr is calculated as exp[(0.47 x race + 0.14 x PSAST) + (0.13 x worst biopsy Gleason sum) + (1.03 x stage T1c) + (1.55 x stage T2b,c)], where PSAST indicates a sigmoidal transformation of prostate-specific antigen. PECE is calculated as 1/[1 + exp(-Z)], where Z = -2.47 + 0.15 (PSAST) + 0.31 (worst biopsy Gleason sum) + 0.18 (race) + 0.16 (stage T1c) + 0.38 (stage T2b,c). CONCLUSION: These two equations can be used preoperatively to predict the probability of extracapsular disease and the risk of prostate-specific antigen recurrence in patients undergoing RP.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Bauer, JJ; Connelly, RR; Seterhenn, IA; Srivastava, S; McLeod, DG; Moul, JW

Published Date

  • September 1998

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 163 / 9

Start / End Page

  • 615 - 619

PubMed ID

  • 9753987

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0026-4075


  • eng

Conference Location

  • England