Rising trends of oral cancer mortality among males worldwide: the return of an old public health problem.


Journal Article

Oral cancer is considered widely to be a form of cancer whose etiology is well understood and which is becoming relatively rare in developed countries. There have been, however, a series of recent reports indicating that after many years of declining risk, the rates may be rising again in men. To investigate the extent of such changes, national time-series of oral-cancer mortality data available in the World Health Organization's mortality database have been analyzed. Age-period-cohort modeling was used to establish the extent and nature of these changes and to allow comparisons among countries. Nineteen out of 24 national datasets demonstrate a similar pattern of recent increasing cohort-effects for oral cancer in men. The largest increases have occurred in countries of central and eastern Europe where rates have increased by a factor of from three to 10 within a generation. The cohort-based nature of the changes observed in men suggest that there will be a continuing increase in the absolute numbers of cases of oral cancer to be treated in the coming decades.

Full Text

Cited Authors

  • Macfarlane, GJ; Boyle, P; Evstifeeva, TV; Robertson, C; Scully, C

Published Date

  • May 1994

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 5 / 3

Start / End Page

  • 259 - 265

PubMed ID

  • 8061175

Pubmed Central ID

  • 8061175

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1573-7225

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0957-5243

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1007/bf01830246


  • eng