Time-based risk assessment after myocardial infarction. Implications for timing of discharge and applications to medical decision-making.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

AIMS: We evaluated timing of adverse cardiac events after thrombolysis to guide length of stay after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier survival curves described timing of major postinfarction complications in 41021 fibrinolytic-treated patients in GUSTO-I. Using model-fitting, these data were best explained by a mixed-exponential survival model: an acute curve describing most adverse events and a chronic curve describing a lower background rate. We replicated this strategy in 15059 fibrinolytic-treated patients in GUSTO-III. From the relation between time and events described by the model's acute curve in GUSTO-III, we proposed times for hospital discharge. The acute curve explained 97% of deaths and 68%-96% of various event composites. Of complications within 10 days, 90% of deaths and 70% of acute curve death, stroke, shock, heart failure, or reinfarction occurred by 24 h. By 2.7 days, 95% of deaths, stroke, shock, heart failure, or reinfarction occurred. Most major ventricular arrhythmias occurred within 24 h, after which the hazard curve was flat. CONCLUSIONS: Mixed-exponential survival modelling describes timing of post-infarction complications and supports discharge 4 days after uncomplicated infarction. Such time-based risk assessment could guide decision-making in other settings in which randomized studies are impractical.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Newby, LK; Hasselblad, V; Armstrong, PW; Van de Werf, F; Mark, DB; White, HD; Topol, EJ; Califf, RM

Published Date

  • January 2003

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 24 / 2

Start / End Page

  • 182 - 189

PubMed ID

  • 12573275

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0195-668X

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/s0195-668x(02)00301-9


  • eng

Conference Location

  • England