The Overall Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime

Published

Journal Article

This paper analyses the 13 business cycles since 1933 to provide evidence on the old question of whether recessions cause crime. Using data from the United States, we find that recessions are consistently associated with an uptick in burglary and robbery, and a reduction in theft of motor vehicles. There is no statistical association with homicide. These patterns are suggestive of the relative importance of the various channels by which economic conditions influence crime. © 2012 The Authors German Economic Review © 2012 Verein für Socialpolitik.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Bushway, S; Cook, PJ; Phillips, M

Published Date

  • November 1, 2012

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 13 / 4

Start / End Page

  • 436 - 446

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1468-0475

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1465-6485

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1111/j.1468-0475.2012.00578.x

Citation Source

  • Scopus