Skip to main content

AGGREGATING SUBJECTIVE FORECASTS. SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Ashton, AH; Ashton, RH
Published in: Management Science
January 1, 1985

The impact on forecast accuracy of aggregating the subjective forecasts of up to 13 individuals was examined for five forecast weighting methods - equal weighting, two ex post methods that took advantage of prior information about the individuals' relative accuracy, and two ex ante methods based on objective and subjective assessments of relative accuracy. The individuals were executives, managers and sales personnel employed by Time, Inc. , and the variable forecasted was the number of advertising pages sold annually by Time magazine over a 14-year period. The results show that both the average forecast error and the variance of the error decrease as additional individuals' forecasts are included in the aggregate.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Management Science

DOI

ISSN

0025-1909

Publication Date

January 1, 1985

Volume

31

Issue

12

Start / End Page

1499 / 1508

Related Subject Headings

  • Operations Research
  • 46 Information and computing sciences
  • 38 Economics
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 08 Information and Computing Sciences
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Ashton, A. H., & Ashton, R. H. (1985). AGGREGATING SUBJECTIVE FORECASTS. SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS. Management Science, 31(12), 1499–1508. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.31.12.1499
Ashton, A. H., and R. H. Ashton. “AGGREGATING SUBJECTIVE FORECASTS. SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS.Management Science 31, no. 12 (January 1, 1985): 1499–1508. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.31.12.1499.
Ashton AH, Ashton RH. AGGREGATING SUBJECTIVE FORECASTS. SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS. Management Science. 1985 Jan 1;31(12):1499–508.
Ashton, A. H., and R. H. Ashton. “AGGREGATING SUBJECTIVE FORECASTS. SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS.Management Science, vol. 31, no. 12, Jan. 1985, pp. 1499–508. Scopus, doi:10.1287/mnsc.31.12.1499.
Ashton AH, Ashton RH. AGGREGATING SUBJECTIVE FORECASTS. SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS. Management Science. 1985 Jan 1;31(12):1499–1508.

Published In

Management Science

DOI

ISSN

0025-1909

Publication Date

January 1, 1985

Volume

31

Issue

12

Start / End Page

1499 / 1508

Related Subject Headings

  • Operations Research
  • 46 Information and computing sciences
  • 38 Economics
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 08 Information and Computing Sciences