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Projecting the need for gynecologic oncologists for the next 40 years.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Wallace, AH; Havrilesky, LJ; Valea, FA; Barnett, JC; Berchuck, A; Myers, ER
Published in: Obstet Gynecol
December 2010

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the ratio of gynecologic cancer cases to practicing gynecologic oncologists in the United States over the next 40 years. METHODS: Using population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau and incidence and mortality rates from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results surveys, we estimated the annual number of new gynecologic cancer cases through 2050; the effects of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was included in cervical cancer estimates. The number of practicing gynecologic oncologists was projected through 2050 using data from the 2005 Society of Gynecologic Oncologists Practice Survey, current Society of Gynecologic Oncologists membership information, American Board of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Gynecologic Oncology oral examination results, and mortality estimates from U.S. life tables. Projected time in practice was sex-dependent based on Society of Gynecologic Oncologists Practice Survey. For sensitivity analyses, we varied annual number and sex distribution of fellowship graduates, HPV vaccination coverage rates, and future incidence of overweight and obesity. RESULTS: At constant training rates, the annual number of new cancer cases per practicing gynecologic oncologist will rise from 112 in 2010 to 133 in 2050, a 19% increase. If the annual number of fellowship graduates increases by 25%, the ratio of cancer cases per gynecologic oncologist will decrease to 106, a 5% decrease. Projections are more sensitive to changes in physician demographics than to changes in HPV vaccination coverage rates. CONCLUSION: The gynecologic cancer caseload of practicing gynecologic oncologists will increase by almost 20% over the next 40 years at constant training rates. Changes in the projected sex distribution of fellowship graduates and their time in practice affect these projections.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Obstet Gynecol

DOI

EISSN

1873-233X

Publication Date

December 2010

Volume

116

Issue

6

Start / End Page

1366 / 1372

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Workforce
  • United States
  • Retirement
  • Population Dynamics
  • Obstetrics & Reproductive Medicine
  • Middle Aged
  • Medical Oncology
  • Male
  • Humans
  • Gynecology
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
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Wallace, A. H., Havrilesky, L. J., Valea, F. A., Barnett, J. C., Berchuck, A., & Myers, E. R. (2010). Projecting the need for gynecologic oncologists for the next 40 years. Obstet Gynecol, 116(6), 1366–1372. https://doi.org/10.1097/AOG.0b013e3181fc3a22
Wallace, Amy H., Laura J. Havrilesky, Fidel A. Valea, Jason C. Barnett, Andrew Berchuck, and Evan R. Myers. “Projecting the need for gynecologic oncologists for the next 40 years.Obstet Gynecol 116, no. 6 (December 2010): 1366–72. https://doi.org/10.1097/AOG.0b013e3181fc3a22.
Wallace AH, Havrilesky LJ, Valea FA, Barnett JC, Berchuck A, Myers ER. Projecting the need for gynecologic oncologists for the next 40 years. Obstet Gynecol. 2010 Dec;116(6):1366–72.
Wallace, Amy H., et al. “Projecting the need for gynecologic oncologists for the next 40 years.Obstet Gynecol, vol. 116, no. 6, Dec. 2010, pp. 1366–72. Pubmed, doi:10.1097/AOG.0b013e3181fc3a22.
Wallace AH, Havrilesky LJ, Valea FA, Barnett JC, Berchuck A, Myers ER. Projecting the need for gynecologic oncologists for the next 40 years. Obstet Gynecol. 2010 Dec;116(6):1366–1372.

Published In

Obstet Gynecol

DOI

EISSN

1873-233X

Publication Date

December 2010

Volume

116

Issue

6

Start / End Page

1366 / 1372

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Workforce
  • United States
  • Retirement
  • Population Dynamics
  • Obstetrics & Reproductive Medicine
  • Middle Aged
  • Medical Oncology
  • Male
  • Humans
  • Gynecology