Using statistical and computer models to quantify volcanic hazards
Published
Journal Article
Risk assessment of rare natural hazards, such as large volcanic block and ash or pyroclastic flows, is addressed. Assessment is approached through a combination of computer modeling, statistical modeling, and extreme-event probability computation. A computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical modeling of the available data is needed to determine the initializing distribution for exercising the computer model. In dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer model are prohibitively expensive. The solution instead requires a combination of adaptive design of computer model approximations (emulators) and rare event simulation. The techniques that are developed for risk assessment are illustrated on a test-bed example involving volcanic flow. © 2009 American Statistical Association.
Full Text
Duke Authors
Cited Authors
- Bayarr, MJ; Berger, JO; Calder, ES; Dalbey, K; Lunagomez, S; Patra, AK; Pitman, EB; Spiller, ET; Wolpert, RL
Published Date
- November 1, 2009
Published In
Volume / Issue
- 51 / 4
Start / End Page
- 402 - 413
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)
- 0040-1706
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
- 10.1198/TECH.2009.08018
Citation Source
- Scopus