Using statistical and computer models to quantify volcanic hazards


Journal Article

Risk assessment of rare natural hazards, such as large volcanic block and ash or pyroclastic flows, is addressed. Assessment is approached through a combination of computer modeling, statistical modeling, and extreme-event probability computation. A computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical modeling of the available data is needed to determine the initializing distribution for exercising the computer model. In dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer model are prohibitively expensive. The solution instead requires a combination of adaptive design of computer model approximations (emulators) and rare event simulation. The techniques that are developed for risk assessment are illustrated on a test-bed example involving volcanic flow. © 2009 American Statistical Association.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Bayarr, MJ; Berger, JO; Calder, ES; Dalbey, K; Lunagomez, S; Patra, AK; Pitman, EB; Spiller, ET; Wolpert, RL

Published Date

  • November 1, 2009

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 51 / 4

Start / End Page

  • 402 - 413

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0040-1706

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1198/TECH.2009.08018

Citation Source

  • Scopus