Using statistical and computer models to quantify volcanic hazards
Risk assessment of rare natural hazards, such as large volcanic block and ash or pyroclastic flows, is addressed. Assessment is approached through a combination of computer modeling, statistical modeling, and extreme-event probability computation. A computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical modeling of the available data is needed to determine the initializing distribution for exercising the computer model. In dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer model are prohibitively expensive. The solution instead requires a combination of adaptive design of computer model approximations (emulators) and rare event simulation. The techniques that are developed for risk assessment are illustrated on a test-bed example involving volcanic flow. © 2009 American Statistical Association.
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- Statistics & Probability
- 4905 Statistics
- 0104 Statistics
Citation
Published In
DOI
ISSN
Publication Date
Volume
Issue
Start / End Page
Related Subject Headings
- Statistics & Probability
- 4905 Statistics
- 0104 Statistics