The effect of macroeconomic news on beliefs and preferences: Evidence from the options market

Journal Article (Journal Article)

We examine the effect of regularly scheduled macroeconomic announcements on the beliefs and preferences of participants in the U.S. Treasury market by comparing the option-implied state-price densities (SPDs) of bond prices shortly before and after the announcements. We find that the announcements reduce the uncertainty implicit in the second moment of the SPD regardless of the content of the news. The changes in the higher-order moments, in contrast, depend on whether the news is good or bad for economic prospects. We explore three alternative explanations for our empirical findings: relative mispricing, changes in beliefs, and changes in preferences. We find that our results are consistent with time-varying risk aversion. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Beber, A; Brandt, MW

Published Date

  • November 1, 2006

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 53 / 8

Start / End Page

  • 1997 - 2039

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0304-3932

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.05.013

Citation Source

  • Scopus