On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach


Journal Article

We model the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns as a latent VAR process to study their contemporaneous and intertemporal relationships in a flexible statistical framework and without relying on exogenous predictors. We find a strong and robust negative correlation between the innovations to the conditional moments leading to pronounced countercyclical variation in the Sharpe ratio. We document significant lead-lag correlations between the moments that also appear related to business cycles. Finally, we show that although the conditional correlation between the mean and volatility is negative, the unconditional correlation is positive due to these lead-lag correlations. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Brandt, MW; Kang, Q

Published Date

  • May 1, 2004

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 72 / 2

Start / End Page

  • 217 - 257

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0304-405X

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/j.jfineco.2002.06.001

Citation Source

  • Scopus