The expected value of frequency calibration
It is possible to calibrate subjective probabilites using relative frequency information pertaining to a probability assessor's past performance. This procedure is known as frequency calibration and can be used to improve the quality of assessed probabilities. We develop a conceptual model of the probability assessment process and, on the basis of this model, show how to calculate the expected value of frequency calibration (EVFC) using standard Bayesian preposterior analysis. U.S. National Weather Service precipitation probability forecasts are used to illustrate the calculation of EVFC in the contexts of scoring rules and the familiar umbrella problem. © 1990.
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