The expected value of frequency calibration

Journal Article (Journal Article)

It is possible to calibrate subjective probabilites using relative frequency information pertaining to a probability assessor's past performance. This procedure is known as frequency calibration and can be used to improve the quality of assessed probabilities. We develop a conceptual model of the probability assessment process and, on the basis of this model, show how to calculate the expected value of frequency calibration (EVFC) using standard Bayesian preposterior analysis. U.S. National Weather Service precipitation probability forecasts are used to illustrate the calculation of EVFC in the contexts of scoring rules and the familiar umbrella problem. © 1990.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Clemen, RT; Murphy, AH

Published Date

  • January 1, 1990

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 46 / 1

Start / End Page

  • 102 - 117

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0749-5978

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/0749-5978(90)90024-4

Citation Source

  • Scopus