Statistical analysis of interrelationships between objective and subjective temperature forecasts

Two methods of analysis are employed: 1) ordinary least squares regression analysis and 2) a Bayesian information-content analysis. Maximum and minimum temperature forecasts formulated operationally for six National Weather Service offices during the period 1980-86 are analyzed. Results produced by the two methods are quite consistent and can be summarized as follows: 1) the subjective forecasts contain information not included in the objective forecasts for all cases (ie, stratifications) considered and 2) the objective forcasts contain information not included in the subjective forecasts in a substantial majority of these cases. Generally, the incremental information content in the subjective forecasts considerably exceeds the incremental information content in the objective forecasts. -from Authors

Duke Scholars

Author Robert T. Clemen Fuqua School of Business