Statistical analysis of interrelationships between objective and subjective temperature forecasts


Journal Article

Two methods of analysis are employed: 1) ordinary least squares regression analysis and 2) a Bayesian information-content analysis. Maximum and minimum temperature forecasts formulated operationally for six National Weather Service offices during the period 1980-86 are analyzed. Results produced by the two methods are quite consistent and can be summarized as follows: 1) the subjective forecasts contain information not included in the objective forecasts for all cases (ie, stratifications) considered and 2) the objective forcasts contain information not included in the subjective forecasts in a substantial majority of these cases. Generally, the incremental information content in the subjective forecasts considerably exceeds the incremental information content in the objective forecasts. -from Authors

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Murphy, AH; Yin-Sheng Chen, ; Clemen, RT

Published Date

  • January 1, 1988

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 116 / 11

Start / End Page

  • 2121 - 2131

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0027-0644

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<2121:SAOIBO>2.0.CO;2

Citation Source

  • Scopus