LIMITS FOR THE PRECISION AND VALUE OF INFORMATION FROM DEPENDENT SOURCES.

Published

Journal Article

The model given was based on information sources that provide estimates with a joint distribution of estimation errors. The case in which the joint distribution is multivariate normal received special attention because it is tractable and should often provide a reasonable approximation in practice. A set of dependent information sources produces information that, in the aggregate, is equivalent to that produced by a smaller number of independent sources. Bounds and limiting results were obtained for the precision of information from dependent sources, and the upper bounds tend to be remarkably low. Positive dependence among information sources has a detrimental effect on the precision and value of information. Differences in precision between dependent and independent cases can be large. The incremental value of information can decrease rapidly, with dependence and the limiting value of information as more sources are considered can be considerably less than the expected value of perfect information.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL

Published Date

  • January 1, 1985

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 33 / 2

Start / End Page

  • 427 - 442

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0030-364X

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1287/opre.33.2.427

Citation Source

  • Scopus