Bayesian modeling of incidence and progression of disease from cross-sectional data.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

In the absence of longitudinal data, the current presence and severity of disease can be measured for a sample of individuals to investigate factors related to disease incidence and progression. In this article, Bayesian discrete-time stochastic models are developed for inference from cross-sectional data consisting of the age at first diagnosis, the current presence of disease, and one or more surrogates of disease severity. Semiparametric models are used for the age-specific hazards of onset and diagnosis, and a normal underlying variable approach is proposed for modeling of changes with latency time in disease severity. The model accommodates multiple surrogates of disease severity having different measurement scales and heterogeneity among individuals in disease progression. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is described for posterior computation, and the methods are applied to data from a study of uterine leiomyoma.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Dunson, B; Baird, DD

Published Date

  • December 2002

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 58 / 4

Start / End Page

  • 813 - 822

PubMed ID

  • 12495135

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1541-0420

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0006-341X

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1111/j.0006-341x.2002.00813.x


  • eng