Forecasting the future of cardiovascular disease in the United States: a policy statement from the American Heart Association.

Journal Article (Journal Article)


Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and is responsible for 17% of national health expenditures. As the population ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially.

Methods and results

To prepare for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5% of the US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008$) total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from $273 billion to $818 billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated to increase from $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61%.


These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing burden of CVD.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Heidenreich, PA; Trogdon, JG; Khavjou, OA; Butler, J; Dracup, K; Ezekowitz, MD; Finkelstein, EA; Hong, Y; Johnston, SC; Khera, A; Lloyd-Jones, DM; Nelson, SA; Nichol, G; Orenstein, D; Wilson, PWF; Woo, YJ; American Heart Association Advocacy Coordinating Committee, ; Stroke Council, ; Council on Cardiovascular Radiology and Intervention, ; Council on Clinical Cardiology, ; Council on Epidemiology and Prevention, ; Council on Arteriosclerosis, ; Thrombosis and Vascular Biology, ; Council on Cardiopulmonary, ; Critical Care, ; Perioperative and Resuscitation, ; Council on Cardiovascular Nursing, ; Council on the Kidney in Cardiovascular Disease, ; Council on Cardiovascular Surgery and Anesthesia, and Interdisciplinary Council on Quality of Care and Outcomes Research,

Published Date

  • March 2011

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 123 / 8

Start / End Page

  • 933 - 944

PubMed ID

  • 21262990

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1524-4539

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0009-7322

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1161/cir.0b013e31820a55f5


  • eng