Skip to main content

Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting

Publication ,  Journal Article
Fischer, GW
Published in: Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
January 1, 1982

Previous research has shown that people tend to be overconfident when making subjective probability forecasts. This study tests the hypothesis that scoring-rule-based payoffs and feedback would lead to better probability forecasts. Subjects predicted the freshman grade point averages of 40 other college students using data on the other students' genders, SAT scores, and high school grade point averages. The results of the study were mixed. Trial-by-trial outcome feedback had no effect on performance. Incentive pay based on a truncated logarithmic scoring rule does have an effect. Subjects motivated by scoring-rule-based pay were much less likely to assign very large or very small probabilities and performed much better in terms of the logarithmic scoring rule itself. On the other hand, scoring-rule-based incentives had no effect on the extent to which subjects' forecasts corresponded with forecasts generated by an actuarial Bayesian classification model. The only positive effect of scoring-rule-based incentives was to deter the use of very small probabilities. © 1982.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Organizational Behavior and Human Performance

DOI

ISSN

0030-5073

Publication Date

January 1, 1982

Volume

29

Issue

3

Start / End Page

352 / 369
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Fischer, G. W. (1982). Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 29(3), 352–369. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(82)90250-1
Fischer, G. W. “Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 29, no. 3 (January 1, 1982): 352–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(82)90250-1.
Fischer GW. Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. 1982 Jan 1;29(3):352–69.
Fischer, G. W. “Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, vol. 29, no. 3, Jan. 1982, pp. 352–69. Scopus, doi:10.1016/0030-5073(82)90250-1.
Fischer GW. Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. 1982 Jan 1;29(3):352–369.

Published In

Organizational Behavior and Human Performance

DOI

ISSN

0030-5073

Publication Date

January 1, 1982

Volume

29

Issue

3

Start / End Page

352 / 369