Predictors of mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic heart failure.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

AIMS: We aimed to develop prognostic models for patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated data from 7599 patients in the CHARM programme with CHF with and without left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Multi-variable Cox regression models were developed using baseline candidate variables to predict all-cause mortality (n=1831 deaths) and the composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and heart failure (HF) hospitalization (n=2460 patients with events). Final models included 21 predictor variables for CV death/HF hospitalization and for death. The three most powerful predictors were older age (beginning >60 years), diabetes, and lower left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) (beginning <45%). Other independent predictors that increased risk included higher NYHA class, cardiomegaly, prior HF hospitalization, male sex, lower body mass index, and lower diastolic blood pressure. The model accurately stratified actual 2-year mortality from 2.5 to 44% for the lowest to highest deciles of predicted risk. CONCLUSION: In a large contemporary CHF population, including patients with preserved and decreased left ventricular systolic function, routine clinical variables can discriminate risk regardless of EF. Diabetes was found to be a surprisingly strong independent predictor. These models can stratify risk and help define how patient characteristics relate to clinical course.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Pocock, SJ; Wang, D; Pfeffer, MA; Yusuf, S; McMurray, JJV; Swedberg, KB; Ostergren, J; Michelson, EL; Pieper, KS; Granger, CB

Published Date

  • January 2006

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 27 / 1

Start / End Page

  • 65 - 75

PubMed ID

  • 16219658

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0195-668X

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1093/eurheartj/ehi555


  • eng

Conference Location

  • England