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Use of expert judgment in NUREG-1150

Publication ,  Journal Article
Ortiz, NR; Wheeler, TA; Breeding, RJ; Hora, S; Meyer, MA; Keeney, RL
Published in: Nuclear Engineering and Design
1991

The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, "Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants", is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. © 1991.

Duke Scholars

Ralph L. Keeney
Author Ralph L. Keeney Fuqua School of Business

Published In

Nuclear Engineering and Design

ISSN

0029-5493

Publication Date

1991

Volume

126

Issue

3

Start / End Page

313 / 331

Related Subject Headings

  • Energy
  • 0915 Interdisciplinary Engineering
 

Citation

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ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Ortiz, N. R., Wheeler, T. A., Breeding, R. J., Hora, S., Meyer, M. A., & Keeney, R. L. (1991). Use of expert judgment in NUREG-1150. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 126(3), 313–331.
Ortiz, N. R., T. A. Wheeler, R. J. Breeding, S. Hora, M. A. Meyer, and R. L. Keeney. “Use of expert judgment in NUREG-1150.” Nuclear Engineering and Design 126, no. 3 (1991): 313–31.
Ortiz NR, Wheeler TA, Breeding RJ, Hora S, Meyer MA, Keeney RL. Use of expert judgment in NUREG-1150. Nuclear Engineering and Design. 1991;126(3):313–31.
Ortiz, N. R., et al. “Use of expert judgment in NUREG-1150.” Nuclear Engineering and Design, vol. 126, no. 3, 1991, pp. 313–31.
Ortiz NR, Wheeler TA, Breeding RJ, Hora S, Meyer MA, Keeney RL. Use of expert judgment in NUREG-1150. Nuclear Engineering and Design. 1991;126(3):313–331.
Journal cover image

Published In

Nuclear Engineering and Design

ISSN

0029-5493

Publication Date

1991

Volume

126

Issue

3

Start / End Page

313 / 331

Related Subject Headings

  • Energy
  • 0915 Interdisciplinary Engineering