Relationship between cancer patients' predictions of prognosis and their treatment preferences.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

CONTEXT: Previous studies have documented that cancer patients tend to overestimate the probability of long-term survival. If patient preferences about the trade-offs between the risks and benefits associated with alternative treatment strategies are based on inaccurate perceptions of prognosis, then treatment choices may not reflect each patient's true values. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that among terminally ill cancer patients an accurate understanding of prognosis is associated with a preference for therapy that focuses on comfort over attempts at life extension. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Five teaching hospitals in the United States. PATIENTS: A total of 917 adults hospitalized with stage III or IV non-small cell lung cancer or colon cancer metastatic to liver in phases 1 and 2 of the Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatments (SUPPORT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of patients favoring life-extending therapy over therapy focusing on relief of pain and discomfort, patient and physician estimates of the probability of 6-month survival, and actual 6-month survival. RESULTS: Patients who thought they were going to live for at least 6 months were more likely (odds ratio [OR], 2.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-3.7) to favor life-extending therapy over comfort care compared with patients who thought there was at least a 10% chance that they would not live 6 months. This OR was highest (8.5; 95% CI, 3.0-24.0) among patients who estimated their 6-month survival probability at greater than 90% but whose physicians estimated it at 10% or less. Patients overestimated their chances of surviving 6 months, while physicians estimated prognosis quite accurately. Patients who preferred life-extending therapy were more likely to undergo aggressive treatment, but controlling for known prognostic factors, their 6-month survival was no better. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with metastatic colon and lung cancer overestimate their survival probabilities and these estimates may influence their preferences about medical therapies.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Weeks, JC; Cook, EF; O'Day, SJ; Peterson, LM; Wenger, N; Reding, D; Harrell, FE; Kussin, P; Dawson, NV; Connors, AF; Lynn, J; Phillips, RS

Published Date

  • June 3, 1998

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 279 / 21

Start / End Page

  • 1709 - 1714

PubMed ID

  • 9624023

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0098-7484

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1001/jama.279.21.1709


  • eng

Conference Location

  • United States