Decision analysis with indeterminate or incoherent probabilities


Journal Article

This paper presents a new method of modeling indeterminate and incoherent probability judgments in decision analysis problems. The decision maker's degree of beliefs in the occurrence of an event is represented by a unimodal (in fact, concave) function on the unit interval, whose parameters are elicited in terms of lower and upper probabilities with attached confidence weights. This is shown to provide a unified framework for performing sensitivity analysis, reconciling incoherence, and combining expert judgments. © 1989 J.C. Baltzer AG, Scientific Publishing Company.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Nau, RF

Published Date

  • December 1, 1989

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 19 / 1

Start / End Page

  • 375 - 403

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1572-9338

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0254-5330

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1007/BF02283530

Citation Source

  • Scopus