A risk score to predict bleeding in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

Published

Journal Article

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop a practical risk score to predict the risk and implications of major bleeding in acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic complications have been strongly linked with subsequent mortality in patients with ACS. METHODS: A total of 17,421 patients with ACS (including non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction [MI], ST-segment elevation MI, and biomarker negative ACS) were studied in the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage strategY) and the HORIZONS-AMI (Harmonizing Outcomes with RevasculariZatiON and Stents in Acute Myocardial Infarction) trials. An integer risk score for major bleeding within 30 days was developed from a multivariable logistic regression model. RESULTS: Non-coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG)-related major bleeding within 30 days occurred in 744 patients (7.3%) and had 6 independent baseline predictors (female sex, advanced age, elevated serum creatinine and white blood cell count, anemia, non-ST-segment elevation MI, or ST-segment elevation MI) and 1 treatment-related variable (use of heparin + a glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor rather than bivalirudin alone) (model c-statistic = 0.74). The integer risk score differentiated patients with a 30-day rate of non-CABG-related major bleeding ranging from 1% to over 40%. In a time-updated covariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression model, major bleeding was an independent predictor of a 3.2-fold increase in mortality. The link to mortality risk was strongest for non-CABG-related Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI)-defined major bleeding followed by non-TIMI major bleeding with or without blood transfusions, whereas isolated large hematomas and CABG-related bleeding were not significantly associated with subsequent mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ACS have marked variation in their risk of major bleeding. A simple risk score based on 6 baseline measures plus anticoagulation regimen identifies patients at increased risk for non-CABG-related bleeding and subsequent 1-year mortality, for whom appropriate treatment strategies can be implemented.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Mehran, R; Pocock, SJ; Nikolsky, E; Clayton, T; Dangas, GD; Kirtane, AJ; Parise, H; Fahy, M; Manoukian, SV; Feit, F; Ohman, ME; Witzenbichler, B; Guagliumi, G; Lansky, AJ; Stone, GW

Published Date

  • June 2010

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 55 / 23

Start / End Page

  • 2556 - 2566

PubMed ID

  • 20513595

Pubmed Central ID

  • 20513595

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1558-3597

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0735-1097

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/j.jacc.2009.09.076

Language

  • eng