Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

"A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction. Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions."

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Manton, KG; Stallard, E; Singer, B

Published Date

  • November 1992

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 8 / 3

Start / End Page

  • 433 - 458

PubMed ID

  • 12157867

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0169-2070

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/0169-2070(92)90057-g


  • eng