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The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Yashin, AI; Manton, KG; Stallard, E
Published in: Theoretical population biology
April 1989

This paper presents a model describing how the uncertainty due to influential exogenous processes combines with stochasticity intrinsic to physiological aging processes and propagates through time to generate uncertainty about the future physiological state of the population. Variance expressions are derived for (a) the future values of the physiological variables under the assumption that external factors evolve under a linear stochastic diffusion process, and (b) the cohort survival functions and cohort life expectancies which reflect the uncertainty in the future values of the physiological variables. The model implies that a major component of uncertainty in forecasts of the physiological characteristics of a closed cohort is due to differential rates of survival associated with different realizations of the external process. This suggests that the limits to forecasting may be different in physiological systems subject to systematic mortality than in physical systems such as weather where the concepts of closed cohorts and of mortality selection have no simple analog.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Theoretical population biology

DOI

EISSN

1096-0325

ISSN

0040-5809

Publication Date

April 1989

Volume

35

Issue

2

Start / End Page

119 / 141

Related Subject Headings

  • Stochastic Processes
  • Probability
  • Mortality
  • Models, Statistical
  • Life Expectancy
  • Humans
  • Forecasting
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Aging
  • 4901 Applied mathematics
 

Citation

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Yashin, A. I., Manton, K. G., & Stallard, E. (1989). The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments. Theoretical Population Biology, 35(2), 119–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-5809(89)90013-0
Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments.Theoretical Population Biology 35, no. 2 (April 1989): 119–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-5809(89)90013-0.
Yashin AI, Manton KG, Stallard E. The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments. Theoretical population biology. 1989 Apr;35(2):119–41.
Yashin, A. I., et al. “The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments.Theoretical Population Biology, vol. 35, no. 2, Apr. 1989, pp. 119–41. Epmc, doi:10.1016/0040-5809(89)90013-0.
Yashin AI, Manton KG, Stallard E. The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments. Theoretical population biology. 1989 Apr;35(2):119–141.
Journal cover image

Published In

Theoretical population biology

DOI

EISSN

1096-0325

ISSN

0040-5809

Publication Date

April 1989

Volume

35

Issue

2

Start / End Page

119 / 141

Related Subject Headings

  • Stochastic Processes
  • Probability
  • Mortality
  • Models, Statistical
  • Life Expectancy
  • Humans
  • Forecasting
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Aging
  • 4901 Applied mathematics