Prediction of choledocholithiasis in patients with gallbladder stones using a personal computer
A statistic method, using a personal computer, has been developed to predict the presence of choledocholithiasis in a prospective series of 123 patients undergoing cholecistectomy. Twenty-two factors were evaluated and the most important four of them were determinated by an univariate analysis. In the second step, these four variables were employed in a discriminant analysis to produce an equation. The mathematical model gave a significant predictive index of the presence of common bile duct stones (Sensitivity=94.4%); only one patient was incorrectly classified. The predictive model devised using readily available clinical data (choledochal diameter, number of gallbladder stones, serum bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase levels) could aid to establish the statistical probabilities of choledocholithiasis in pre- and intraoperative clinical judgment.
