Alternative projections of the U.S. population.


Journal Article

The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Ahlburg, DA; Vaupel, JW

Published Date

  • November 1990

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 27 / 4

Start / End Page

  • 639 - 652

PubMed ID

  • 2249750

Pubmed Central ID

  • 2249750

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1533-7790

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0070-3370

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.2307/2061575


  • eng