AVERAGES OF FORECASTS: SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS.

Published

Journal Article

An alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods. In this paper the authors investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of forecasting methods on the accuracy of simple averages. It is concluded that the forecasting accuracy improves, and that the variability of accuracy among different combinations decreases, as the number of methods in the average increases. Thus combining forecasts seems to be a reasonable practical alternative when, as is often the case, a 'true' model of the data-generating process or a single 'best' forecasting method cannot be or is not, for whatever reasons, identified.

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Makridakis, S; Winkler, RL

Published Date

  • January 1, 1983

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 29 / 7

Start / End Page

  • 987 - 996

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0025-1909

Citation Source

  • Scopus