SCORING RULES FOR CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS.

Published

Journal Article

Personal, or subjective, probabilities are used as inputs to many inferential and decision-making models, and various procedures have been developed for the elicitation of such probabilities. Included among these elicitation procedures are scoring rules, which involve the computation of a score based on the assessor's stated probabilities and on the event that actually occurs. The development of scoring rules has, in general, been restricted to the elicitation of discrete probability distributions. In this paper, families of scoring rules for the elicitation of continuous probability distributions are developed and discussed.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Matheson, JE; Winkler, RL

Published Date

  • January 1, 1976

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 22 / 10

Start / End Page

  • 1087 - 1096

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0025-1909

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1287/mnsc.22.10.1087

Citation Source

  • Scopus