Intuitive bayesian point estimation

Journal Article (Journal Article)

This paper presents the results of an experiment designed to investigate the relationship between intuitive Bayesian point estimates and theoretically optimal Bayesian point estimates for various probability distributions (normal distributions) and loss functions (linear and quadratic loss functions). The results indicate that this relationship depends somewhat on the parameters of the distribution and loss function. Overall, however, the subjects performed the task of intuitive estimation and prediction very well. On the average, the intuitive estimates were quite close to the optimal estimates despite the complexity of the decision-making problem. © 1970.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Winkler, RL

Published Date

  • January 1, 1970

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 5 / 5

Start / End Page

  • 417 - 429

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0030-5073

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/0030-5073(70)90032-2

Citation Source

  • Scopus