On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis

Journal Article (Journal Article)

Four methods of arriving at a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis are described (weighted-average, natural-conjugate, feedback and reassessment, and group reassessment). The weighted-average and natural-conjugate methods are compared empirically in probability choice and generation models. The use of the weighted-average method was more frequent and its use increased in the presence of high variance among experts' judgments. The cognitive abilities, tolerances for ambiguity, and risk-taking propensities of the subjects were not related to their choices of a consensus distribution. Implications for future research are drawn. © 1972.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Winkler, RL; Cummings, LL

Published Date

  • January 1, 1972

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 7 / 1

Start / End Page

  • 63 - 76

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0030-5073

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/0030-5073(72)90007-4

Citation Source

  • Scopus